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Brent crude broke above $100 per barrel on Wednesday, September 9, 2026, due to renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and escalating tanker attacks in the Middle East. This has caused Hormuz crude flows to plummet to below 2 million barrels per day (bpd), down from roughly 8–9 million bpd before the conflict resumed. Alternative export routes are increasingly vulnerable to attacks, and falling inventories and prolonged supply disruptions could keep oil prices elevated. Brent crude has already surpassed $100 per barrel, with no clear path toward de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran.
For months, reports of improving tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz kept Brent crude prices constrained. However, the latest escalation in the chokepoint has reversed this trend, sending Brent crude above $100 per barrel. Analysts had warned that Brent crude could surge to over $100 and remain elevated for an extended period. On Wednesday, Brent finally broke through this threshold for the first time since late July, as fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces intensified concerns about oil flows from the region.
Reports of recovering crude oil flows out of the Persian Gulf were the primary factor that initially kept prices in check. Early August data showed average daily outflows of between 6 and 8 million barrels. However, the resumption of fighting between U.S. and Iranian forces has drastically reduced these flows to below 2 million barrels daily. According to Rystad Energy, the average daily outflow stood at around 4 to 5 million barrels. Since September 2, no large crude carriers have exited the Strait of Hormuz, according to Kpler and Reuters.
Meanwhile, the U.S. reported destroying five Iranian tankers in the Persian Gulf, prompting Iran to attack a U.S. base in Jordan. Brent crude prices surged past $100 per barrel as neither side showed signs of de-escalation. Despite the worst price predictions not yet materializing, Middle Eastern producers have found alternative routes to export crude, such as pipelines to ports outside the Strait of Hormuz. For example, the UAE uses a pipeline to Fujairah, Iraq uses a pipeline to Turkey, and Saudi Arabia reversed flows through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The Houthis have also targeted Saudi vessels and energy infrastructure, including a recent attack on the Jizan refinery.
While Brent crude has broken above $100 per barrel, the question remains whether prices can sustain this level. The longer the conflict continues, the thinner the price lid becomes, as global oil inventories are drawn down. The International Energy Agency reported that 8.3 million barrels daily of oil production remained shut in across the Middle East as of July, and global oil inventories had dipped by 69 million barrels in July, leading to an average daily inventory decline of 2.7 million barrels.
The trend in international oil benchmarks shows that while oil prices have fallen sharply in the past, they are now falling less sharply, resulting in a cumulative gain of nearly $40 for Brent crude since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate has gained over $30 per barrel since September 2024, with physical market prices even higher. Crude blends like Murban and the DME Oman benchmark are already over $100 per barrel, and the OPEC basket is trading above $100. Brent futures have now joined them above the $100 threshold.
This situation is not bearish for prices in the short term, especially without renewed peace negotiations between Tehran and Washington. Demand for crude tends to rise in the final quarter of the year, though high prices may cause some demand destruction. However, the fundamental role of crude oil derivatives in economies suggests that prices could climb even higher and remain elevated.
